Ethereum is approaching one of its most important historical support zones as market uncertainty continues to weigh on prices. After weeks of steady selling, ETH is trading near $3,150, raising questions about whether the market is close to forming a long-term bottom. New on-chain data from CryptoQuant suggests that Ethereum is now just 8% away from the average cost basis of long-term holders — a level that has historically triggered renewed accumulation and price recoveries.
Ethereum Approaches Long-Term Holder Cost Basis
According to fresh data, Ethereum is only 8% away from touching the Accumulation Addresses Realized Price level at $2,895. This metric represents the average price long-term holders paid for their ETH during previous cycles. These addresses typically include patient investors who accumulate steadily through volatility rather than reacting to short-term swings.
Analysts note that when Ethereum approaches this realized price, market conditions often shift from fear to strategic buying. Similar events in past cycles have marked the end of strong corrections and the beginning of accumulation phases. The current proximity to the $2,895 level suggests that Ethereum may be close to reaching a zone where long-term investors begin positioning for value.
History Shows Strong Support Near This Zone
Historically, Ethereum rarely dips below the Accumulation Addresses Realized Price. The most notable exception occurred during the April 2025 tax-tariff crisis, when global economic uncertainty surged. At that time, the Global Economic Policy Uncertainty Index jumped to 629 points — nearly 50% higher than its COVID-19 peak.
Even during that extreme period, long-term holders continued accumulating rather than selling. On-chain data shows that about 17 million ETH flowed into accumulation addresses throughout 2025, increasing the total balance from 10 million to more than 27 million ETH. This strong increase highlights the conviction of long-term Ethereum investors, who treat sharp corrections as opportunities instead of risks.
Analysts believe that if Ethereum falls another 8% and reaches the long-term holder cost basis again, large buyers may step in as they have done consistently during previous cycles. Historically, ETH has not remained below this level for extended periods, often bouncing back once accumulation strengthens.
Long-Term Holders Remain Confident Despite Fear
CryptoQuant analyst Burak Kesmeci notes that long-term Ethereum holders remain largely unshaken. Their strategy of buying during periods of fear has consistently provided a strong base for future rallies. These investors tend to accumulate when liquidity is low and sentiment is weak — precisely the type of conditions developing in the current market.
Charts from CryptoQuant show a steady rise in the balance of ETH held by accumulation addresses. This trend reinforces the idea that long-term holders continue to view current market weakness as temporary, with the $2,895 level acting as a historically reliable reference point for value.
Ethereum Holds Above Key Structural Support
Ethereum’s weekly chart shows that the asset is still maintaining stability above a major structural support area near $3,000. After briefly dipping below the level last week, ETH recovered quickly, forming a potential short-term base. The $3,000 zone also aligns with the 200-week moving average, a long-term indicator that has repeatedly supported major market bottoms in past cycles.
ETH is currently trading near $3,190, attempting to remain above this demand zone. The 50-week moving average sits around $3,500 and now serves as immediate resistance. A sustained move above $3,500 would be an early signal that buyers are returning to the market.
On the downside, losing the $3,000 level may lead to a retest of the $2,800–$2,900 range, which aligns closely with the Accumulation Realized Price tracked by on-chain analysts. This makes the zone one of the most closely watched support areas in the current market environment.
Market Conditions Mirror Past Correction Phases
The recent decline resembles previous market reset phases, including the April 2025 correction when Ethereum tested long-term support before rallying strongly. A combination of rising fear, lower leverage, and steady accumulation from long-term holders typically sets the stage for a market recovery.
With ETH now only 8% away from its long-term holder cost basis, traders and analysts are watching closely to see whether the coming weeks bring renewed buying activity. Although short-term sentiment remains cautious, the convergence of technical and on-chain signals suggests Ethereum is approaching a potentially important inflection point.
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