The crypto market feels different again. Confidence is shaky. Volatility is back. And one question keeps coming up across social media, trading desks, and private groups.
Has the crypto bear started? Are the bulls going to sleep, while the bears are waking up?
Some traders believe the top is in. Others think this is just another shakeout before the next leg higher. Right now, the market is sending mixed signals. In this blog, we argue both sides of the debate using price action, macro data, and long-term structure.
No bias. Just the full picture.
Argument 1: Yes, the Crypto Bear Has Started
There are growing signs that suggest the bear started already, or that the market is very close to entering a full bear phase.
The 4-Year Cycle Could Be Topping Out
For years, Bitcoin followed a rough four-year market cycle tied to the halving. Every cycle ended with a blow-off top followed by a long bear market.
If this pattern still holds, the recent highs could already represent the cycle peak. Some analysts also believe returns are shrinking, which could mean cycles are topping out earlier than before.
Bitcoin Lost the 100k Level on the Weekly Chart
Losing the 100k level on the weekly timeframe is a major technical warning. This zone acted as both psychological and structural support.
Once such a level flips into resistance, trends often weaken for months. As long as Bitcoin trades below this area, bearish pressure remains dominant.
A Possible Double Top Is Forming
On the weekly chart, some traders now see a possible double top forming. This is one of the most reliable reversal patterns in technical analysis.
If Bitcoin breaks the neckline with strong volume, it would be a clear structural confirmation that the bear started.
There Is No Real Hype or FOMO
Bull markets thrive on excitement. Viral narratives. Retail inflows. Exploding meme coins.
Right now, that energy is missing. Market participation feels thin. Pumps fade fast. That lack of euphoria often appears near market tops or during the early stages of a bear market.
Macro Conditions Still Look Weak
The global economy remains under pressure. Growth is slowing. Debt levels are high. Geopolitical risks continue to rise.
Crypto is a high-risk asset class. When macro conditions weaken, speculative capital usually leaves first.
Related: Learn about the Japan carry trade and its effect on crypto.
Two Rate Cuts Already Happened
At first glance, rate cuts sound bullish. But historically, markets often peak after the first few cuts. Central banks usually cut because something in the economy is already breaking.
If history repeats, the bear may have started quietly alongside these policy shifts.
Gold and Silver Are Outperforming Bitcoin in 2025
Another important warning sign is that gold and silver have outperformed Bitcoin throughout 2025. This is significant because 2025 was widely expected to be a bull market year for BTC. In true Bitcoin bull markets, BTC usually outperforms almost every other asset. This year, capital has instead flowed into traditional safe havens. That suggests investors are becoming more defensive instead of speculative. When money prefers metals over Bitcoin during what should be a bullish phase, it raises a serious question: has the bear started earlier than expected?
On-Chain Activity Is Cooling Off
Transaction growth is slowing across major networks. New wallet creation is weaker. This points to reduced real demand rather than simple consolidation.
Bear markets often begin with fading on-chain activity long before price fully reacts.
Altcoins Continue to Underperform
Even when Bitcoin bounces, most altcoins fail to follow. Liquidity keeps rotating back into BTC dominance.
This defensive positioning is typical in late bull or early bear market conditions.
Argument 2: No, the Crypto Bear Has Not Started Yet
Despite all the warning signs, there are still strong reasons to believe the bear has not started yet.
December Could Bring a Large Rate Cut
Markets are now watching December closely. A larger-than-expected rate cut could completely change conditions.
Fresh liquidity has historically pushed investors back into risk assets, including crypto, very fast.
Bitcoin Only Needs a 10% Move to Reclaim Bullish Structure
From current levels, Bitcoin only needs roughly a 10% move to reclaim long-term bullish zones across multiple timeframes.
In crypto terms, that is a normal move. One strong weekly candle could technically invalidate many bearish setups.
There Was No True Blow-Off Top
Every major crypto cycle ended with extreme euphoria. Vertical price moves. Mass retail mania.
This cycle never delivered that final parabolic stage. The absence of a true blow-off top suggests the broader bull market may not be finished yet.
Related: In early October, we asked ourselves: “is this the top?”
Positive Regulation Needs Time to Show Results
Spot ETFs, clearer global regulation, and improved institutional access are major long-term positives.
Large capital does not deploy overnight. These structural changes often take many quarters before fully showing up in price.
Long-Term Moving Averages Are Still Holding
On the weekly and monthly charts, Bitcoin is still trading above key long-term moving averages such as the 200-week MA.
As long as these levels hold, long-term bullish structure technically remains intact.
Funding Rates Are Not Deeply Bearish
In confirmed bear markets, funding rates usually stay negative for long periods.
Right now, funding remains mixed and frequently flips both directions. This suggests market balance rather than full panic.
Study our guide to Funding Rates
Stablecoin Liquidity Is Still Elevated
Large amounts of capital remain parked in stablecoins. That money has not left crypto yet.
In deep bear markets, stablecoin supply usually contracts as capital exits the ecosystem entirely.
Miners Are Not Capitulating
Miner capitulation is one of the strongest bear market signals. So far, hashrate remains strong and forced miner selling is limited.
This does not align with a fully developed bear market.
Long-Term Holders Are Still Accumulating
On-chain data shows that long-term holders continue to accumulate at these levels. These wallets historically buy during long-term opportunity zones.
That behavior fits late bull or early accumulation phases, not deep bear markets.
The 4-Year Cycle May No Longer Work Like It Used To
Another major reason some traders believe the bear has not started yet is that the traditional four-year Bitcoin cycle may be breaking down. In earlier years, crypto was a small and highly illiquid market. That structure created extreme booms and brutal busts. Today, Bitcoin trades through ETFs, institutions, futures, and global liquidity pools. With deeper liquidity and more participants, violent 80 to 90 percent crashes become far less likely. Instead of full-cycle collapses, we may now see compressed price action with 10 to 30 percent swings. In that case, Bitcoin could slowly start behaving more like a macro asset or even a growth stock, where long-term trends continue upward for years with only controlled pullbacks. If this model holds, the question of “has the bear started?” may itself become outdated.
My Personal Take as a Trader
Personally, I started preparing for a scenario like this back in August. At that time, the market still felt strong on the surface, but I did not like the risk-to-reward on many altcoins anymore. So I sold a large part of my higher-risk alt positions early. That decision already took a lot of pressure off.
For Bitcoin, my plan was different. I was still hoping the bulls would push us into a final euphoric move above 150k. I had staggered sell orders between 135k and 170k. That was my ideal blow-off top scenario. But price never got there. And now, looking at the charts today, I no longer believe we will sweep those highs anytime soon. As traders, we do not trade hopes. We trade what the chart actually shows us.
When Bitcoin lost the 100k level on the weekly, I already shared my plan clearly. I would wait for a relief bounce to sell my remaining spot BTC and then sit out for a bit. Unfortunately, that clean exit bounce never came immediately. Instead, we kept grinding lower.
That said, markets never fall in a straight line. After a 30 percent drop, you almost always get some form of relief. One could argue that this relief bounce is what we are seeing now, with Bitcoin rebounding from the low 80k area back toward 94k. For me personally, this 94k zone is now a key decision level.
If we manage to close the weekly above 94k, then 100k to 110k comes back into play. In that case, I will reassess and may stay partially exposed. But if we fail to hold this level and close the weekly below it, I believe playing defense becomes the smart move. That would mean selling remaining spot, protecting capital, and waiting for lower levels.
On the downside, the low 70k range becomes very realistic in that scenario. Even a full retest of the previous cycle all-time high around 69k would not surprise me. That would be painful emotionally, but structurally it would still make sense inside a larger market reset.
For me, this is no longer about being bullish or bearish. It is about reacting to what the chart confirms. If strength returns, I will adapt. If weakness expands, I will step aside and preserve capital. Surviving these phases is what allows you to take advantage of the next big opportunity.
Did you take big losses recently? This is how you rebuild your portfolio
The Reality: The Market Is at a Crossroads
So, has the bear started?
Right now, the market is sitting exactly at a decision point.
Bears point to broken structure, lost key levels, weak hype, gold and silver outperforming, and fragile macro conditions.
Bulls point to pending liquidity, strong long-term technical support, positive regulation, and the absence of a true euphoric top.
Both sides have valid arguments. The next major move in Bitcoin will likely settle the debate.
What Traders Should Focus On Right Now
This is not the time for blind conviction. It is a time for flexibility.
Whether the bear started or not, risk management matters more than predictions.
Smart traders are currently:
- Reducing leverage
- Keeping position sizes smaller
- Watching weekly closes closely
- Staying liquid and patient
The goal is survival first. Profits come later.
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Final Thoughts: Has the Bear Started?
So, has the bear started?
It is not fully confirmed yet, but the risk has clearly increased.
Bears point to broken structure, fading hype, gold and silver strength, macro pressure, and cycle theory. Bulls point to liquidity, incomplete euphoric behavior, strong support levels, changing market structure, and long-term accumulation.
Both sides are partially right. What matters most now is not predicting the market, but staying disciplined while the market reveals its direction.
If this is a bear market, it will eventually create once-in-a-cycle opportunities.
If this is only a correction, the breakout could be fast and unforgiving.
Either way, preparation beats prediction.
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