The prospect of XRP ETFs has generated considerable excitement in the crypto market. Despite delays caused by the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, many analysts are optimistic that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) will approve several XRP spot ETF filings once the shutdown is resolved. If these XRP ETFs attract even half of the inflows that Bitcoin ETFs have seen, the price of XRP could experience a substantial surge.
XRP ETFs: Awaiting Approval Amid Government Shutdown
As of October 2025, the SEC has yet to make a decision on several XRP spot ETF filings, including those from major firms like Grayscale, 21Shares, and Bitwise. These filings had deadlines between October 18 and 20, but with the government shutdown in effect, no rulings have been made yet. However, market experts such as Oliver Michel, CEO of Tokentus, remain confident that the SEC will eventually approve these applications.
Industry leaders, including Steven McClurg, CEO of Canary Capital, believe that XRP ETFs could see massive capital inflows once approval is granted. McClurg estimates that XRP ETFs could receive between $5 to $10 billion in the first month of trading. This initial influx could significantly impact the price of XRP, and market watchers are keen to see how the asset will react once trading begins.
Ethereum ETFs’ Performance as a Precedent
While Ethereum ETFs faced an underwhelming start, with a negative netflow of $480 million in their first four months, they eventually gained significant traction, accumulating a total of $14.57 billion in net inflows. This performance suggests that XRP ETFs could also experience a slow start but eventually see considerable growth, potentially driving the price of XRP higher.
XRP Price if It Captures 50% of Bitcoin ETF 2025 Inflows
To estimate the potential impact of XRP ETFs on the price, we considered the inflows of Bitcoin ETFs. Bitcoin ETFs have seen a cumulative net inflow of $65.17 billion since their launch, with $26.6 billion of that coming just this year. Even though Bitcoin ETFs have recently struggled, losing $533 million since October 10, the potential for XRP ETFs remains strong.
If XRP ETFs capture just 50% of Bitcoin ETFs’ inflows over the next two years, this would amount to $13.3 billion in inflows. This is a reasonable expectation, especially when considering that Ethereum ETFs have already secured $14.57 billion in inflows over the course of a year and three months. Such a scenario could result in a massive surge in XRP’s market cap and price.
The Inflow-to-Valuation Multiplier
Capital inflows don’t directly translate to the same increase in an asset’s valuation due to the inflow-to-valuation multiplier. In May, analyst Dom found that $61 million in capital inflows resulted in a $16.6 billion increase in XRP’s market cap—a staggering 272x multiplier.
Using a more modest multiplier of 90x, which accounts for conservative market expectations, XRP’s market cap could increase by $90 for every $1 in inflows. Therefore, the $13.3 billion in inflows could lead to a market cap increase of $1.205 trillion.
XRP Price Forecast
Currently, XRP boasts a market cap of $143 billion and trades at $2.38 per token. If the market cap were to increase by $1.205 trillion, XRP’s price would surge to $22.48. This would represent an incredible 844% increase in price from its current value.
Conclusion: The Potential for Massive Gains
The potential for XRP to see a significant price increase hinges on the approval and subsequent inflows into XRP ETFs. If the SEC grants approval and XRP ETFs capture just half of the Bitcoin ETF inflows, the market cap could increase by over a trillion dollars, sending the price of XRP to new heights.
While the government shutdown has delayed the decision-making process, market participants are hopeful that approval will come soon. If XRP ETFs mirror the success of other crypto ETFs, the price of XRP could see unprecedented growth, offering a compelling investment opportunity for those looking to capitalize on the next big wave in the crypto space.
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